Highlighting Important 2H Catalysts

What I am watching in the next few months

Elephant in the room, I’m trying a paid tier! $10/month, it will include organizational perks like access to my entire catalyst document, which I update consistently. The document also contains an early start on next year’s list. Finally, it includes a list of active mergers, their current spreads, any CVR of note, and my estimated closing dates, for those of you who are interested in that sort of thing. I also plan to put *some* research content behind there, likely some lower risk/higher PoS items in an effort to make this mutually beneficial. I’ve opened the chat feature up as well, which I don’t have a clear vision for yet, but I am happy to try it out. Though I tend to be very responsive if contacted directly anyway. I’ve been talking things through, and I think I’m at a point where it makes sense to try to monetize some of my efforts here, as well as incentivize myself to write on here more regularly. If you feel that my content has been and/or will be valuable to you, your support would be greatly appreciated. Not sure exactly what kind of reception to expect, but hopefully people appreciate my work and understand where I’m coming from.

It didn’t seem that I could remove the annual option, but I’ve priced it such that it doesn’t make any sense to use, in order to discourage it. I am still pursuing other opportunities, and would prefer not to be able to write on here before the end of that period, in all honesty.

I want to take some time to highlight what I’ll be watching through the end of the year, some of which I plan to touch upon in greater detail in future articles.

I’ve already written up a handful of small-cap readouts in INMB, ATYR, and RZLT for this year, of which my views on all still hold. Some of that work will continue to be shown for free, but for those of you who find value in it and would like to reflect that or see more of it, your support is greatly appreciated.

As for other catalysts I am watching, Q3 has a handful of really interesting regulatory bellwethers. In a roughly 2-month span, we should get decisions on REPL, JAZZ/CMRX, BHVN, PGEN, CAPR, and OMER. This should be informative on how independent OCE is, whether we should trust Prasad’s words or actions, and set the tone for gene therapy & rare disease drug development for the next few years. BHVN’s SCA decision will give us an idea on how low we should expect the neuro drug bar to be as well.

I’ve spoken on CAPR at length before, I think that’s a very flimsy data package that needed to be propped up by the involvement of Peter Marks. I suspect approval odds are much lower now, though I’m still weighing how much I should care about waiting for more precedent in hand from the current administration. OMER is one I plan to dig in on in detail. Their balance sheet is not in a good place, and it was a long slog to even be able to file. The program has previously been CRL’d for a lack of efficacy evidence, and we saw last year with APLT that the FDA being receptive to filing for a program that the market perceived as dead, does not mean that their views have suddenly shifted.

There’s an obvious consensus short with the AVXL rejection coming, likely late in the year or early next year. I always look forward to things like that, these types of things always come closest to reflecting fair value after negative regulatory developments, BCLI would be a great example from a year or two ago now. Some people ignore these types due to reputation, but I’ve never understood that, I think a scam’s regulatory event is the best skew you’ll ever find.

I’ll go into detail on some of the special situations I like as well, RGLS in particular I find fascinating. This is exactly the type of stock that I’d rather dump into a CVR and not have to worry about it for a few years, rather than having to deal with all types of sentiment gymnastics, catalyst deserts, will they even be able to raise enough cash to get to the readout, etc. The capital requirements for all of June aren’t ideal, but if it’s still trading around here right before closing, I think the opportunity cost of $1 locked into the CVR for ~4 years to make another $6 will be worthwhile. To me, this trial has a meaningful shot based on the proof of concept data.

As I come across lower-risk trades, maybe I find an edge on catalyst timing, or maybe some of these net-nets (though I think that edge is starting to dry up), I’ll try to flag things like that in order to really make this worthwhile. But my current plan is not to paywall all research. I’ve never had any interest in that, and am really just looking to incentivize myself to publish more work.

For those of you interested in paying to see all of my future work, my full catalyst sheet can be found here: