LVTX Liquidation/Takeout Case

Quick math

Starting right off with the goods:

Note this is fairly sensitive to the operating expenses calculation, but I think the assumptions are fine, cash balance decreased from $78.9m to $76.6m from q3 to q4, but with a $5m milestone payment coming in, which if you take that out it would be $7.3m spent on the quarter. Q1 burn will be largely normal given that it’s the end of Feb already. Some of these numbers are a bit out of date because they were an international filer that just transitioned, so 10K will be out soon and some of this will change, but I don’t believe by much.

Other items of note are that the leases are expiring so liability is not much of an issue.

Interestingly, to the upside, they still have 2 active and partnered programs that could have periodic milestone payments flowing in, with royalty upside should they develop. The CVR component to any deal they do would likely be more interesting than in the average case.

PFE terms

JNJ milestones earned so far

Everything in here can be found in the most recent annual report, earnings PR, or today's 8-K. I think the stock has churned enough today that it would be reasonable to expect the usual suspects to show up, and that a takeout offer would likely be for greater than the current market price, with a more compelling CVR than one would usually expect.