Nice work! Another thing to add is that the reduction in HPVG observed is likely not clinically significant enough (need to reduce by more than 20% to see clinical effects).
Just wondering if you would recommend the 20 Dec Puts vs Jan puts, which are nearly pricing in the company's bankruptcy by Jan.... Unless the company chooses to do the readout on Christmas week?
One minor point: the company may still trade above $1 in Feb '25 if R. Uihlein wishes so.. You mentioned the following: "it has a bunch of convertible notes that expire next year" Well, the thing is RU has already "irrevocably agreed" to convert the notes expiring in the mid of next year (at $5 stock price!!) so the ones that left expire in Sept.. Add to this the fact that almighty Dr. Ben Carson is on their board and this becomes a feasible spin for retail
I know they don't have to repay the Apr notes, but I don't understand the incentive to convert *more* at a huge loss, and then further sink in lots of additional money afterward. My best comp for this would be something like ARAV last year. Large failure like this with single party funding is a natural time to pull the plug even if giant sunk costs and the company has been around for awhile.
Thank you very much for the writeups, I just noticed some massive activity due to a KOL I believe that has the stock run up to 3$. Is there another binary event that can drive price movement or will it exhaust runway prior to that? The next readout I believe would be somewhere in mid-2026 if I'm not mistaken. I feel they tried to spin the results in the KOL event as positively as possible, but it still didn't reach statistical significance, even in the higher dose.
I saw that as well, I also noticed they no longer have a reported date for the 36 month trail readout which was originally slated for Q2 2025 which ends today. I can only take this as bearish, but I am worried due to the chairman who has extremely deep pockets will bail this stock out even if the 36 month readout is bad.
Nice work! Another thing to add is that the reduction in HPVG observed is likely not clinically significant enough (need to reduce by more than 20% to see clinical effects).
Just wondering if you would recommend the 20 Dec Puts vs Jan puts, which are nearly pricing in the company's bankruptcy by Jan.... Unless the company chooses to do the readout on Christmas week?
I have no real view on readout timing
imho buying 20 Dec puts is prob the only option:
1) super difficult (if not impossible) to short the stock
2) GALT shareholders meeting is 1 week AFTER Jan option expiration so absolutely no justification to pay +1.75 premium for those
Thanks for the great read!
One minor point: the company may still trade above $1 in Feb '25 if R. Uihlein wishes so.. You mentioned the following: "it has a bunch of convertible notes that expire next year" Well, the thing is RU has already "irrevocably agreed" to convert the notes expiring in the mid of next year (at $5 stock price!!) so the ones that left expire in Sept.. Add to this the fact that almighty Dr. Ben Carson is on their board and this becomes a feasible spin for retail
I know they don't have to repay the Apr notes, but I don't understand the incentive to convert *more* at a huge loss, and then further sink in lots of additional money afterward. My best comp for this would be something like ARAV last year. Large failure like this with single party funding is a natural time to pull the plug even if giant sunk costs and the company has been around for awhile.
Thank you very much for the writeups, I just noticed some massive activity due to a KOL I believe that has the stock run up to 3$. Is there another binary event that can drive price movement or will it exhaust runway prior to that? The next readout I believe would be somewhere in mid-2026 if I'm not mistaken. I feel they tried to spin the results in the KOL event as positively as possible, but it still didn't reach statistical significance, even in the higher dose.
they are guiding for runway through August right now
I saw that as well, I also noticed they no longer have a reported date for the 36 month trail readout which was originally slated for Q2 2025 which ends today. I can only take this as bearish, but I am worried due to the chairman who has extremely deep pockets will bail this stock out even if the 36 month readout is bad.