Nice work! Another thing to add is that the reduction in HPVG observed is likely not clinically significant enough (need to reduce by more than 20% to see clinical effects).
Just wondering if you would recommend the 20 Dec Puts vs Jan puts, which are nearly pricing in the company's bankruptcy by Jan.... Unless the company chooses to do the readout on Christmas week?
One minor point: the company may still trade above $1 in Feb '25 if R. Uihlein wishes so.. You mentioned the following: "it has a bunch of convertible notes that expire next year" Well, the thing is RU has already "irrevocably agreed" to convert the notes expiring in the mid of next year (at $5 stock price!!) so the ones that left expire in Sept.. Add to this the fact that almighty Dr. Ben Carson is on their board and this becomes a feasible spin for retail
I know they don't have to repay the Apr notes, but I don't understand the incentive to convert *more* at a huge loss, and then further sink in lots of additional money afterward. My best comp for this would be something like ARAV last year. Large failure like this with single party funding is a natural time to pull the plug even if giant sunk costs and the company has been around for awhile.
Nice work! Another thing to add is that the reduction in HPVG observed is likely not clinically significant enough (need to reduce by more than 20% to see clinical effects).
Just wondering if you would recommend the 20 Dec Puts vs Jan puts, which are nearly pricing in the company's bankruptcy by Jan.... Unless the company chooses to do the readout on Christmas week?
I have no real view on readout timing
imho buying 20 Dec puts is prob the only option:
1) super difficult (if not impossible) to short the stock
2) GALT shareholders meeting is 1 week AFTER Jan option expiration so absolutely no justification to pay +1.75 premium for those
Thanks for the great read!
One minor point: the company may still trade above $1 in Feb '25 if R. Uihlein wishes so.. You mentioned the following: "it has a bunch of convertible notes that expire next year" Well, the thing is RU has already "irrevocably agreed" to convert the notes expiring in the mid of next year (at $5 stock price!!) so the ones that left expire in Sept.. Add to this the fact that almighty Dr. Ben Carson is on their board and this becomes a feasible spin for retail
I know they don't have to repay the Apr notes, but I don't understand the incentive to convert *more* at a huge loss, and then further sink in lots of additional money afterward. My best comp for this would be something like ARAV last year. Large failure like this with single party funding is a natural time to pull the plug even if giant sunk costs and the company has been around for awhile.